"Political power is merely the organised power of one
class for oppressing another" – Karl Marx
Tahrir Square; the face of the Arab Spring two years on is
blocked by police as protestors gather to mark the anniversary of the uprising
that ousted Hosni Mubarak from power. The people believe president Mohammed
Morsi's has betrayed the revolution which has so far claimed the lives of hundreds,
maybe thousands of native civilians. Those who underestimate democracy in the
West have been fed a valuable lesson over the course of the uprising.
Egypt was a catalyst for revolutions across the middle
eastern belt which continue to disrupt countries as we speak. To date, rulers
have been forced from power in Tunisia, Libya and Yemen, civil uprisings have erupted
in Bahrain and Syria, and there has been a spate of major protests in Algeria,
Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sudan. The so-called 'Safron Revolution' was
also happening at the time as people around the world rallied to 'free Burma',
headed by one of the most iconic political figures since Che Guevara - Aung San Suu Kyi.
It is quite difficult to tell, in their infancy, whether any
of these uprisings have been successful in achieving what they set out to
achieve. Democracy means more than a fair ballot, and the sweeping requests of
the Middle East will require changes to the entire fabric of the region if they
are to be met. But two years on it is possible to address whether the wheels of
change are in motion, or if this revolutionary machine has grinded to a halt.
Military
The Egyptian military was a key pillar of Mubarakism, but has
since evolved as a prominent figure of the revolution and the ruling elite. During
the Arab Spring it managed to tactfully oust Hosni Mubarak, winning the support
of the public without dismantling the basic system. Now that the military has
consolidated its control, the gloves are coming off.
Omar Dahab, a native Egyptian and an Arab, believes the
uprising has brought only more chaos to an already unstable region. "Egypt
was more stable and more settled during the Mubarak days, Libya is now a failed
state and is not unified but ran by armed militias and weapons are accessible
to extreme groups," he says, adding that Syria and Tunisia are faced with similarly
unstable futures.
Burma is now also finding that its government is dominated
by ex-military generals from former junta chief Than Shwe's regime. Exiled
opposition groups have criticised the new administration, claiming it is like
"pouring old wine into a new bottle." What is clear to see is that
extremists and militant groups only stand to gain from mass disrupttions.
Politically
Analysis from the London School of Economics and Political
Science (LSE) revealed that uprisings across the Middle East have not led to
any significant shifts towards permanent democracy even where they have toppled
dictators.
Instead new elites have emerged with clear ties to the old
discredited regimes (as in Egypt and Libya) or existing regimes look like
surviving, battered but intact (as in Syria and Bahrain). The report, After the
Arab Spring: Power Shift in the Middle East?, looked for evidence of genuine
power shifts in the region but found no sign that true revolution has occurred.
It concluded there is: "little evidence to suggest that
future historians will rank the events of 2011 with those of 1848 or 1989.
Simply too few of the fundamentals of social, economic and political
organisation in the Arab world have been successfully contested by the
protests."
The optimist in me would highlight that the uprisings may
have at least given the people a voice. Whether the status quo was toppled or
not, the extent of the uprisings sends a clear message that people are watching
and ready to act.
"Egypt is one of the most populous countries in the
region and a large percentage of the population is made of the youth and they
will not give their freedom away , the Egyptians now know the way and that's
one of the very few positives of the revolution," Mr Dahab added.
Western influence
Frank Ward believes that the problem with many UK commentators
on foreign affairs is that they judge
what's going on within our own frameworks of reference. "I haven't a clue
what the Arab Spring means to most people who live there and my definition of a
dictator might include a good few people who have been courted by Western
Governments."
David Cameron was recently pictured with Bahrain’s King
Hamad in Downing Street, despite the people of Bahrain consistently protesting
the British imposition of despotic monarchy. They want an elected government to
run the island’s oil wealth democratically, for the wellbeing of the populace.
But this dictator, and others in the past, may not be so bad.
"There's the rub. A bad dictator is someone you have a
vested interest in displacing. A benign dictator is someone who's not irritating
you at the moment or who needs to be kept in position," Mr Ward concludes.
"Now and then, the workers are victorious, but only for
a time. The real fruit of their battles lies not in the immediate result, but
in the ever-expanding union of the workers." – Karl Marx
By Jack Peat
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